The Power of Being Seen: Red State Democrats Are Having a Moment

The energy is real

“Honestly, you wouldn’t believe it – I’m in a super rural district, and the energy I’m seeing right now from Democrats here? It’s … wow.”

So said a Democratic Ohio statehouse nominee that I spoke with on the phone yesterday. She was telling me about her race as she waited for a friend to pick her up for an event – gushing about the motivation she’s seeing, especially from the women in her red, rural district.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” she said.

That tracks.

Because, frankly, none of us has seen anything like the last three weeks, since President Joe Biden put his country before himself, suspended his reelection campaign, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris.

And then Harris broke with convention (and with the advice from the pundit class) and, rather than picking a battleground statewide office holder as her running mate, chose Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.

While pundits looked at one another quizzically, throughout red state America – and especially the Midwest – there was an absolute explosion of excitement. A week later, it’s not subsided.

In my opinion, the jubilation isn’t just about what a wonderful, remarkable person Governor Walz is (though that’s part of it). It’s not just about Kamala Harris being so astute and confident as to choose such a charming and excellent candidate (although that’s part of it, too).

It’s something simpler, more acute, more visceral.

It’s the magic of being seen.

For the first time in what feels like decades, red state Democrats – and some blue state Democrats who originated from red states – feel like someone is paying attention to us, appreciates us, and relates to us.

Someone finally sees us.

Every four years, red state Democrats are subjected to the subliminal message that – while all Democratic voters are equal – some are more equal than others.

Whether it’s choosing battleground states for big rallies and conventions, announcing massive funding for “flippable” or “swing” districts, or centering the choice of running mates on whether they can deliver a swing state’s electoral votes, we Democrats in red states hear the message that nobody says out loud.

Red state Democrats are a pretty hardy bunch. But it’s demoralizing and destabilizing when cycle after cycle you get the message that – while everyone appreciates your work organizing your community – the cavalry’s not coming because focus must be on the cities in battleground states like Milwaukee or Phoenix or Detroit.

Not that those places don’t matter, they absolutely do.

But what’s going on in Omaha matters, too. What’s going on in St. Joseph matters, too. What’s going on in Iowa City, and Biloxi, and Tulsa, and Indianapolis, and Eau Claire – what’s going on in those places matters, too.

If it wasn’t clear before, we’ve seen over the last week that people in places like Eau Claire, Wisconsin, will turn out, in massive numbers, to welcome this ticket.

Can you see us now?

More than 12,000 people attended the Harris/Walz rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin (pop 69,737); Image Credit @Tim_Walz

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That rural America is represented on this presidential ticket shows rural and red state Democrats that we’re not just an afterthought – we’re part of the main event. And that makes us relatable to an entirely different part of the electorate that Donald Trump captured back in 2016.

Trump has spent a lifetime studying people – their needs, their fears, their desires, their ambitions. He’s a con man, after all, who sees the American public as a mark, and rural Americans as an especially ripe target. But knowing your audience isn’t the same as relating to your audience.

And while he’s tapped into the anger and resentment that a lot of rural Americans feel, Trump is unable to relate to them on pretty much any level.

Tim Walz, though, reminds us of home.

That could matter, quite a lot, in this election. Earlier this year the Rural Democracy Initiative released a poll of rural voters in 10 states (AZ, GA, MI, MN, MT, NH, NC, OH, PA, and WI). They found that a whopping 15% of rural voters were undecided between Joe Biden and Donald Trump – amounting to 5% of the electorate in the states they polled.

Winning those rural voters could determine who wins the election.

And we’re in a good position to appeal to those voters. The RDI poll also showed that when rural people are given the choice between someone who is like them politically and someone who is like them culturally, about half of the time they choose the person who is like them culturally.

That seems especially relevant right now, when the Republican ticket features a New York billionaire real estate mogul and a Yale-educated tech bro – a duo that isn’t especially relatable to small-town Americans.

While Democrats usually lose on the “relatability” scale, this ticket flips that on its head. Sure, we’ll continue to fight the misperception that we’re coastal elite city folk. That we are nerdy, callus-less, wonky people. JD said it outright: we’re the Childless Cat Lady Party.

But that’s tough to square with a VP nominee who’s walking out on the campaign stage (un-ironically) to John Cougar Mellencamp’s Small Town, dropping “Ope” during campaign rallies, and charming everyone with his GOTV videos featuring auto repair pro tips.

It’s not like Walz is a new kind of Democrat.

He’s just one that’s not had center stage for a long time.

Until now.

It couldn’t have come at a better time. Over the last few years there’s been a serious effort to reach out to rural Democrats and help candidates running in red, rural districts. Grassroots efforts and organizations are leading the charge – like Every State Blue, where we crowdfund for underfunded Democrats running in some of the reddest districts in the country.

But while our grassroots all-for-one-and-one-for-all message resonates, it hasn’t necessarily been represented in the national strategy.

Which is an odd choice, strategically, because it’s worked in the past.

You may recall that in the mid-2000s, then-DNC Chair Howard Dean implemented a so-called 50 State Strategy at the DNC, providing funding for all state parties – including the red ones – to ensure they had the resources and the know-how to operate effectively. Critics of the plan, which included DCCC Chair (and eventual Obama Chief of Staff) Rahm Emmanuel, complained that the funding used to boost state parties should have been thrown to flippable districts – arguing that gains in flippable districts would have been greater.

So, after the 2008 election the 50 State Strategy was scrapped, and we’ve been operating under the flippable district strategy ever since. The results, quite frankly, have been catastrophic.

In 2013, there was an analysis of the electoral results in 20 red states (AL, AK, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV and WY).

In those 20 states, during the 50 State Strategy years (between 2005 and 2008) Democrats gained 39 state house seats, 2 state senate seats, and 3 US House seats.

In those same 20 states, in the years after the 50 State Strategy was scrapped (between 2009 and 2013) Democrats lost 249 state house seats, 84 state senate seats, and 18 US House seats.

In 2005, Democrats controlled 13 legislative chambers in those 20 red states.

In 2013 Democrats controlled just three.

The Obama campaign’s impressive results in 2008 certainly contributed to the gains made during the 50 State Strategy years. The Republican Red Map effort in 2010, when Republicans concentrated their efforts on (successfully) flipping state legislatures, certainly contributed to the losses afterward.

Taken together, they’ve led to the terrible place we are in today.

But rather than correcting course and expanding our field of play, we doubled down – spending ever more energy, attention, and funding on a shrinking number of states and districts. That strategy didn’t just leave huge swaths of the country uncontested and under-supported.

It left those places without someone to share a Democratic message.

And without someone to show the people living in those places that we see them, we hear them, and we care about them.

Now, with someone at the top of the ticket who is so relatable to rural and red-state Americans, it looks like we’re aiming to change that.

And let me tell you, red state Democrats are here for it.

Yesterday, Newsweek reported that the Trump campaign has some internal polling showing Trump receiving less than 50% of the vote in Ohio.

Looks like the rural Ohio statehouse nominee I spoke with yesterday was right.

As she said, we’ve never seen anything like it.

Let’s get to work.

Small Deeds to Do for the Week of August 13, 2024

Here’s the part where – if you are so inclined – we roll up our sleeves and engage in what I like to call Action Therapy. Each Tuesday I share a few “small things” – usually a Small Thing to Read, a Small Event to Attend, and a Small Call to Make or Action to Take. You can tuck these actions into your week with ease – and know that you’re doing something today to make tomorrow better.

Of course, if after reading this you’re motivated and inspired to support red state Democrats, I’m here for it! At Every State Blue (https://everystateblue.org/), we crowdfund support for underfunded Democrats – and have state projects in Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee and nationally with our federal Forgotten Democrats program. You can support our work here, or join one of our projects (Missouri, Ohio, Tennessee, Forgotten Dems).

Small Event(s) to Attend:

Big Tent Talks Rural TODAY at noon eastern!

Join Big Tent this afternoon to hear from Sarah Jaynes, executive director of Rural Democracy Initiative and Jess Piper rural expert and executive director of Blue Missouri, who will discuss rural America: what they are feeling about the Harris/Walz ticket, the November elections and their future. RSVP here.

Hollers for Harris! Thursday, August 15 at 5pm central

Show JD what Appalachia really looks like. Join fellow Indivisibles and staff as we dive deep into Appalachia for a special Holler for Harris event! Charles Booker, Trae Crowder, Joe Troop and Appodlachia are joining us as we show the entire nation what it looks like when Appalachians come together. Our culture, enthusiasm, and proud history of organizing will create a bright future for Appalachia and our nation. Let's join hands and do the work!

Register here.

Small Action to Take: Long Covid Moonshot

Over 22 million Americans have Long Covid. One million American children have Long Covid. That’s equal to the population of the entire state of Illinois AND Ohio. Friend, the number of people suffering from Long Covid is increasing, not decreasing.

The Long Covid Research Moonshot Act of 2024 would provide the National Institutes of Health (NIH) with $1 billion in mandatory funding per year for a decade to support studies, the pursuit of treatments, and the expansion of care for U.S. patients impacted by the condition.

As Sanders’ (I-Vt.) office highlighted, the bill would:

• Require the NIH to establish a long Covid database, advisory board, and a new grant process that would accelerate clinical trials;

• Fund information gathering and public health education;

• Require any new treatments developed by the NIH to be reasonably priced so that every patient can receive it;

• Fund multidisciplinary long Covid clinics that provide comprehensive, coordinated care—especially in underserved, disproportionately impacted communities; and

• Develop and implement best practices for clinical care and social services.

You can read the section-by-section here: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/8.2.2024-Long-COVID-Research-Moonshot-Act-of-2024-SxS.pdf

And the summary here: https://www.sanders.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/8.2.2024-Long-COVID-Research-Moonshot-One-Pager.pdf

Senator Sanders is the Chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee – which is where the bill has been sent. His fellow committee members are co-sponsors of the bill: Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.). Sens. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Peter Welch (D-Vt.) are also cosponsors.

Right now, only Democratic senators have signed on to the bill – but this is an apolitical issue, and we need to reach out to every senator to get them to pay attention to this issue.

Here’s a script, but please share any personal experiences that you have: Hi, my name is [your name] and I’m calling to encourage the Senator to support and become a cosponsor of Senate bill 4964, the Long Covid Moonshot. Long Covid affects over 22 million Americans. This bill would provide the kind of funding for research that’s desperately needed, as well as clinics to treat patients – and best practices to ensure that the care people receive is the best possible.

**If you have a Senator on the HELP Committee, it’s especially important that you reach out and tell them to cosponsor the legislation.**

Here are the Democratic HELP Committee Members:
Patty Murray (D - WA), Robert P. Casey, Jr. (D - PA), Tammy Baldwin (D - WI), Christopher Murphy (D - CT), Maggie Hassan (D - NH), Ben Ray Luján (D - NM), John Hickenlooper (D - CO)

Here are the Republican Members:

Rand Paul, M.D. (R - KY), Susan Collins (R - ME), Lisa Murkowski (R - AK), Mike Braun (R - IN), Roger Marshall, M.D. (R - KS), Mitt Romney (R - UT), Tommy Tuberville (R - AL), Markwayne Mullin (R - OK), Ted Budd (R - NC)

Small Things to Read

The Rural Democracy Initiative poll that I referenced in the above piece is fascinating, and worth your time. https://ruraldemocracyinitiative.org/news/rural-poll-results/

And this is an excellent article about Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy: https://www.governing.com/archive/gov-democrat-howard-deans-fifty-state-strategy.html

Finally, Donald Trump’s “press conference” last week certainly was something, even if it wasn’t really a press conference. No doubt you’ve already heard of some of the whoppers he told.

NPR did a fact check of the entire event, and found 162 lies and distortions – about two per minute. That’s some world-record lying.

Here’s a link to their fact-checking document. This is a good one to bookmark to reference later. https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/nx-s1-5070566/trump-news-conference

Thanks for reading, friend – I’m glad to see you here! I sure hope you subscribe and share with your network. And if you like what I do and you want to support it, consider becoming a paid subscriber. It means a lot.