The Physics of Politics: the First Law of Motion
An Object In Motion Stays in Motion. Keep Moving.
You probably remember it from high school: Unless acted upon by an outside force, an object in motion stays in motion, and an object at rest stays at rest.
It’s the first law of physics, but it could just as easily be considered the first law of politics.
If you’ve worked on a political campaign, you know exactly what I’m talking about. The candidate in motion tends to stay in motion. Whomever has the momentum has the upper hand. Success begets success. Fundraising begets fundraising. Enthusiasm is infectious.
And voters can smell a winner.
The candidate that’s stagnant has to hope for (or manufacture) an outside force to get things moving again. Something to shake things up, goose the electorate, and inject some energy into the race.
That’s what Joe Biden had hoped to do in his debate with Donald Trump – inject some energy into the race and draw some attention to his campaign. I think we can all agree that by debating Trump, Biden certainly shook things up … just not in the way he was hoping.
And that debate could have ended Democrats’ momentum for good – had Biden not used the opportunity to redefine the race in every conceivable way.
After all, an object at rest stays at rest… unless acted upon by an outside force.
And here, that outside force was a very wise Joe Biden stepping aside and endorsing Kamala Harris. While Joe Biden was never able to capture momentum for his own campaign, he certainly jumpstarted Kamala’s.
And right now, Democrats have momentum in spades.
Since it launched in July, the Harris campaign has brought in $540 million – the most for any campaign in history. A whopping $82 million of that came in during the week of the Convention; 1/3 of the folks who donated during the Convention were first time donors.
The 13 states that have updated their voter files since the Harris launch have reported “incredible surges in voter registration” – driven by demographics that trend Democratic (women, voters of color, and young voters).
Image credit, Tom Bonier @Tbonier on Twitter (no I will not call it X)
Historic numbers of people have signed up to help the campaign – nearly 200,000 new volunteer shifts since the Monday of the Democratic National Convention.
And our voters’ enthusiasm has jumped by leaps and bounds – up 40 points in two months from 46% in June to 85% in August. Enthusiasm among independents jumped 20 points, increasing from 34% to 53%. (Republican enthusiasm has remained a stable 71%.)
Importantly, the enthusiasm jump was before last week’s DNC, which itself was historic in its enthusiasm and in its substance.
Image credit, Monmouth University Poll
I was thinking of all of these incredible markers of engagement and excitement when I came across the headline in the New York Times (of course it was the New York Times) that Joy Is Not A Strategy.
Honestly, the headline stopped me in my tracks.
Of course joy – enthusiasm – matters. If it didn’t, it wouldn’t be polled and modeled and fussed about by political reporters and campaign operatives.
We know that depressed voters are less likely to vote, and happier people are more likely to participate – both by working on political campaigns and by contributing to political candidates. (See, for example, the volunteering and fundraising data above.)
Happiness is important enough to politics that a poll by Florida Atlantic University earlier this year specifically tried to capture the happiness of the electorate. They explained that “[h]appiness is important to understand as it influences the well-being and satisfaction of citizens, which in turn shapes their voting behavior.”
And of course let’s not forget all of the Sky Is Falling coverage before the Harris campaign launched that bemoaned the Democrats’ lack of enthusiasm and energy. Every article reminded us that this enthusiasm gap was a sure sign that Democrats would lose in November.
Now Democrats have a 14 point enthusiasm advantage. We’re filling stadiums and zoom rooms and phone banks.
But do go on about how Joy is Not a Strategy.
We’ve had an exceptional, historic month and we deserve to revel in it. I have been, and I hope you have been, too.
But even through the balloon fall and streamers and confetti of the Convention, you could see the contours of potential “outside forces” that could slow our roll.
The mainstream press has been pretty clear that they’d prefer this race to be a close one. (See, for example, the New York Times “Joy Is Not a Strategy” op-ed above.) They’re less interested in covering a rising political star than they are in covering a cage match. As a friend reminded me recently, conflict drives clicks. That’s not an excuse for their coverage, but it’s a pretty good explanation.
Pre-convention headlines assured us (or was it themselves?) that the “Harris honeymoon was ending.” (It wasn’t.) A wildly successful convention did not result in the conflict they wanted to cover, but instead with Democratic unity and uncharacteristic confidence. So they’re still looking for conflict, and unfortunately I’m sure they’ll find it or create it somehow.
Meanwhile, Trump and the Republicans (assisted – or maybe just accompanied? – by RFK, Jr.) will continue trying to land attacks that slow our momentum. So far they’ve been unsuccessful, but it’s not for lack of trying.
And then there’s just the nature of our party. Democrats have a tendency to hand-wring and overanalyze. We pick things apart for sport. We get into big public family squabbles. It’s part of our pathology charm. To maintain momentum, we have to stay out of our own way for the next two months.
There’s a lot that has to go right for us to keep this incredible momentum going.
But, friend, here’s the best part because it’s the part that you control. When I first starting thinking about the momentum in this race, I was looking at it as the campaign’s momentum. After all, the campaign is the campaign, so it makes sense that it is the engine and source of the momentum. Right?
But then it occurred to me.
The campaign isn’t the engine and source of the momentum.
You are.
You’re the person the pollster calls to ask whether you’re motivated. You’re the one who decides whether to kick in another $10, or sign up for another volunteer shift. You’re the one who registers voters, or drives folks to the polls, or reminds your network to Vote on Day 1.
You’re the engine, friend. You’re the power. You always have been.
So when you see the frustrating headlines, and the biased coverage, and the ridiculous accusations, and the demoralizing articles, and the fretful blog posts…
Just remember: you have the power and the control over what happens next.
You get to decide whether you stay motivated, joyful, and engaged … or whether you let those outside forces slow your roll.
After all, an object in motion tends to stay in motion. So let’s keep moving together, friend.
Let’s get to work.
Small Deeds to Do for the Week of August 27, 2024
Here’s the part where – if you are so inclined – we roll up our sleeves and engage in what I like to call Action Therapy. Each Tuesday I share a few “small things” – usually a Small Thing to Read, a Small Event to Attend, and a Small Call to Make or Action to Take. You can tuck these actions into your week with ease – and know that you’re doing something today to make tomorrow better.
A Small Event to Attend: Women Wednesdays for Harris!
This is a great weekly call (as the title suggests, on Wednesdays at 8:30 pm eastern): Come take action in coalition with Women for Harris at a new weekly Zoom space. Every Wednesday, now through the election, we’ll come together around the most urgent and effective ways you can take action. Let’s keep the momentum going until Kamala Harris is in the White House! Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/657943/
A Small Action to Take: Neighbor-to-Neighbor & Voter Protection Opportunities
First, a hat tip to Susan Rogan of Rogan’s List for reminding me about Indivisible’s excellent new relational canvassing tool – which has just added some new states. If you are not already subscribed to Sue’s daily call-to-action Substack you’re missing out! Subscribe here.
Indivisible's Neighbor-to-Neighbor project has expanded geographically and is now available in Missouri. After signing up, you're given a list of 10 nearby neighbors who are likely Democratic voters. They provide you with a script and best practices. Then you reach out to your neighbors, have conversations, and hopefully turn out more voters.
In some ways it's a digital version of the old precinct system!
Unfortunately it's not available in every state yet. You can learn more (including whether it's available in your area) and sign up here: https://www.majorityovermaga.org/neighbor2neighbor-targets
Second, because Neighbor to Neighbor is not available everywhere, I wanted to provide another opportunity that everyone could take part in. Right now all eyes are on voter protection, with Donald Trump saying outright that he doesn't think he needs any more votes – he just needs to "keep Democrats from cheating." That's got everyone's dander up, because it reinforces that election challenges are going to be a main strategy for the Republican party this year. (If you're reading this newsletter I assume you already know that voter fraud is vanishingly rare, while voter suppression and intimidation is horrifyingly common.)
If this is a galvanizing issue for you, it's a good use of your time to reach out ot the Harris/Walz campaign to volunteer for voter protection. You can do that here.
And if you’d like to volunteer for the DNC National Voter Assistance Hotline, fill out this form.
Small Thing to Read
Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote the following short memo, which veteran pollster and Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg included in his (wonderful, amazing!) substack Hopium Chronicles. You should subscribe here.
It’s a great and quick read, and gives you an excellent sense for where the campaign is right now.
Team Harris-Walz is Turning Convention Momentum Into Action
Jen O’Malley Dillon/August 25, 2024
The enthusiasm and energy at the United Center this week was palpable – but that enthusiasm extended well beyond Chicago, spreading far and wide throughout the battleground states that will decide this election.
The Convention marked our biggest week of organizing since the start of the campaign, with volunteers signing up for nearly 200,000 shifts since Monday.
Heading into the Convention, our campaign hosted a weekend of action, and volunteers completed 10,000 shifts and contacted over 1 million voters. The convention itself helped build on that momentum, generating nearly 200,000 new volunteer shifts since the Monday of convention. On Thursday and Friday alone, volunteers signed up for 90,000 shifts, motivated by the extraordinary excitement around the Vice President’s speech.
We head into September with a virtual army of volunteers ready to do the hard work of talking to their neighbors, friends and colleagues. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s battleground infrastructure remains incredibly sparse.
In just over a month since we launched our campaign, Team Harris-Walz raised $540 million - a record for any campaign in history.
Not only are our volunteers doing the work, but this week we saw unprecedented grassroots donations. Just before Vice President Harris’ acceptance speech Thursday night, we officially crossed the $500 million mark. Immediately after her speech, we saw our best fundraising hour since launch day.
Even more encouraging than the total figure is where these donations are coming from:
A third of this week’s donations originated from first-time contributors.
Almost one-fifth of those first-time contributors were young voters and two-thirds of which were women — both of which are poised to be deciding constituencies in November.
Teachers and nurses also continue to be among the most common donor occupations.
This fundraising reflects totals raised across Harris for President, the Democratic National Committee, and joint fundraising committees.
This week, the diversity of our coalition was on display not only in Chicago, but throughout our campaign’s engagement across the country.
Women for Harris engaged over 10,000 women voters through its in-person and virtual programming, including phone banks and volunteer training.
We launched our Latinos con Biden Harris WhatsApp group on Sunday, heading into the Convention week, and saw nearly 4,000 supporters join.
Several other coalitions groups also ran Convention programming this weeks - including AANHPIs for Harris-Walz, Educators for Harris-Walz, Military and Veterans for Harris-Walz, Young Voters for Harris-Walz, Seniors for Harris-Walz, Small Businesses for Harris-Walz and more.
The Convention also supercharged our campaign’s outreach to conservative and independent voters: six Republican speakers were featured on stage and several more appeared in videos, including a number of former Trump administration officials - the most ever for a Democratic convention. In fact, our Convention was the most bipartisan national political event in recent American history. Also, this week, Judge J. Michael Luttig, a conservative legal scholar and George H. W. Bush appointee, along with a dozen Republican lawyers who worked for Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush endorsed the Vice President. He joins the ranks of Congressman Joe Walsh, Congresswoman Barbara Comstock, Congressman Adam Kinzinger, and many others who issued similar endorsements over the past few weeks.
Following the Convention, our campaign isn’t taking our foot off the gas.
In the states, organizers will be making a push this week with voters to talk about critical and mobilizing issues, including reproductive freedom, the cost of living, and protecting Social Security and Medicare.
On Wednesday, Vice President Harris and Governor Walz will kick off a bus tour in South Georgia - their first time campaigning together in the state. This part of the Peach State represents the diverse coalition that makes up the Harris-Walz coalition, including rural, suburban, and urban Georgians – with a large proportion of Black voters and working class families. On Thursday night, in Savannah, the Vice President will host a rally to speak directly to Georgians about the stakes of this election. These rallies also help to build the campaign’s volunteer efforts. In the last month, Vice President Harris’ rallies have helped generate thousands of volunteer sign ups across the battlegrounds. Following her Milwaukee rally on Tuesday night, Wisconsin volunteers signed up for 2,800 shifts.
The campaign also continues its strong paid outreach program. On Friday, the Harris-Walz campaign released a new TV ad, airing across media markets in battleground states, reinforcing the Vice President’s economic vision and belief in building up the middle class, lowering costs, and creating an opportunity economy where everyone who works hard can get ahead. This ad will run as part of a $150 million television buy for August, and then, starting immediately after Labor Day, we already have $370 million in television and digital reservations through Election Day. This fall buy includes the largest digital reservation in the history of American politics, reflecting the campaign’s commitment to meet voters wherever they are.
Bottom line: The Convention was a galvanizing moment for the Harris-Walz coalition throughout the country, energizing and mobilizing volunteer and grassroots donors alike. Headed into Labor Day, our campaign is using those resources and enthusiasm to build on our momentum, taking no voters for granted and communicating relentlessly with battleground voters every single day between now and Election Day – all the while Trump is focused on very little beyond online tantrums and attacking the voters critical to winning 270 electoral votes.
Thanks for reading, friend – I’m glad to see you here! I sure hope you subscribe and share with your network. And if you like what I do and you want to support it, consider becoming a paid subscriber. It means a lot.
“After all, an object in motion tends to stay in motion. So let’s keep moving together, friend.
Let’s get to work.” Says it all!! Thank you for the reminder. Working it! 💙
Right on! Just keep it moving.