The Shock is Shocking: Pundits Don't Seem to Get This Election

Fundamental freedoms and election fundamentals

Last night, a poll out of Iowa dropped that has the political world gobsmacked.

According to Ann Selzer’s Des Moines Register poll, which is widely considered the gold-standard poll in Iowa, Kamala Harris now leads in Iowa by three points.

For reference, Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by 8 points. (Just one point off of the result predicted in Selzer’s 2020 poll, which had Trump winning by 7%.)

It’s been obvious to me and pretty much everyone who has a uterus what is driving the shift to Harris. But Selzer helpfully clarifies the data: “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers.”

Independent women favor Harris by a 28-point margin. Senior women support Harris by more than 2-to-1 (63% to 28%).

In other words, it’s the women.

Over the past few months I’ve been waiting, sometimes patiently but often not, for men to open their eyes to what’s happening around them.

On tv shows and podcasts and popular substacks, pundits have mused aloud at what they see as surprising energy among women. What’s driving this surge of enthusiasm? they wonder during segments detailing massive spikes in women registering to vote and early voting numbers that show the greatest gender gap in history.

That they even have to ask the question is baffling to me, as a woman living in a Red State with a trigger abortion ban that provides no “exceptions” for rape or incest and requires you to be not just at death’s door but stepping over the threshold in order for your actual humanity to trump the “concept of a life.”

It never ceases to amaze me how amazed men are that women are voting for their literal freedom from a world where the government can force you to be an incubator - enduring months of daily torture and a lifetime of physical and psychological damage.

A world where you are forced to beg for healthcare after an incomplete miscarriage leaves you septic but not close enough to death to satisfy the hospital lawyers.

A world where you can be physically violated by a criminal, and then physically violated by the state.

A world where you can be forced to carry a wanted child that won’t survive.

A world where you can get a life-threatening diagnosis like cancer that requires quick treatment to increase your chances of survival – but because the treatment that may save you would kill a fetus, your treatment must wait.

Friend, imagine not being allowed to fight for your own life. Couple the anguish and panic of a cancer diagnosis with the literal hell of knowing you can do nothing about it because the government won’t let you. Trapped in your own body, by your own state.

This is no longer an imagined dystopia. It’s the real world in which Red State women are living, and dying, every day.

Yes we are single issue voters. The single issue is our life.

Stop being surprised that women are making this their issue.

Start being surprised that more men aren’t making it theirs.

You’ve probably heard pundits talking about how the so-called “election fundamentals” – typically things like public perception of the economy and crime rate – favor Trump. A recent MSNBC article concluded that those metrics favor Trump; so then, it asked, why is the race so close?

I sat on the edge of my seat. Will they figure it out? I wondered. Will they conclude that the race is close because women are dying, or watching other women die, or are horrified that one political party is openly dismissive of women’s agency?

No.

They answered by generally saying that Harris is running a good campaign (true) and Trump is an erratic criminal (also true).

In another article, Gallup listed the 10 metrics – election “fundamentals” – that it evaluates during election season and concluded that eight of the 10 were good for Trump, while the other two were neutral.

Notably, it appears they didn’t ask about abortion at all.

The pollsters and the pundits are used to their legacy definitions of fundamentals – the economy, crime, inflation, jobs – because those have been important to the electorate in the past. Those markers have been proven to move results, probably because those issues touch people’s lives in a direct, intimate, and “fundamental” way.

But there’s nothing more fundamental than the ability to control your own physical body. There’s nothing that will touch you more directly. There’s nothing that will impact you more intimately. There’s nothing more motivating.

Election fundamentals have changed.

There’s a miss or a blind spot in every election. In 2016, pollsters famously missed the Trump voter and the anger that was obvious to anyone who looked around middle America. In this election, they’re missing the millions of American women who are screaming in the streets.

This is the first presidential election in which women’s right to control their own bodies is a front-and-center issue. In past elections, it could at best be considered a hypothetical. We had all been assured that Roe was settled law (by the very people who overturned it). Although those of us in Red States have had our rights chipped away for many cycles now, I can see why the electorate wouldn’t consider a looming – but theoretical – threat like the fall of Roe a top voting issue.

But the situation in Red States is no longer theoretical. It’s visceral.

Women are dying. Women are suffering. The state is responsible.

And women are voting like it.

I don’t know how the election will go on Tuesday. I have my hopes. I have my fears. We all do. But I won’t be surprised if the story of this election is that women all across the country turned out in massive numbers to reclaim the agency that we have lost.

As Tim Walz said this week, “I kind of have a feeling that women all across this country, from every walk of life, from either party, are going to send a loud and clear message to Donald Trump next Tuesday, November fifth, whether he likes it or not.”

From his lips to God’s ears.

Let’s get to work.

Actions for the Week of November 3, 2024

Yes, you’re right! I usually post on Tuesdays, which makes this week’s post pretty early. Publishing on Tuesday didn’t make much sense when so many of us will be working hard on election-related activities. Plus I know your inbox (and mine) will be bonkers on Tuesday.

And while I always share some ways to pitch in (some “Small Deeds to do”) today I want that to be nice and brief. Most important right now is to tuck in with the campaign in this final push. To do that, you can head over to the general volunteer link here: https://democrats.org/take-action/

Or here: https://go.kamalaharris.com/

Special Note for Missouri Voters: If you live in Missouri, here’s an excellent Voter Guide created by the President of the Board of Aldermen, Megan Green. (Click here for the guide.) In particular, I’d like to highlight the need to vote against retention of the two Missouri Supreme Court justices (Ginger Gooch and Kelly Broniec) who voted to keep Amendment 3 off the ballot and blocked an agreement between prosecutors and Marcellus Williams to stop his execution on grounds that new evidence likely proved his innocence.

Small Event to Attend: Set Your Calendar for the Every State Blue Election Night Watch Party!

Join David Pepper, Jessica Piper (and yours truly!) for an Every State Blue election night watch party! We’re excited to gather friends – and the members of Blue Ohio, Blue Missouri, Blue Tennessee, and Forgotten Democrats – to watch the returns. We’ll be joined by special guests throughout the night, including some folks who can provide insight into some of the early returns in our member states.

Worried you’re going to be too nervous to sit still on election night? We understand how you feel – but friends don’t let friends spend the evening being nervous alone! Come join us and be part of the community.

Click the button below to register.

Small Action to Take: Opportunities to Help Voters Cure Ballots

Ballot chase and cure programs help voters that have already voted resolve issues that otherwise would prevent their ballots from being counted. Volunteers reach out to voters to let them know there’s an issue with their ballot and help them correct it. You will be personally helping ensure a voters’ voice is heard. There are many opportunities to help in this way across the country. Here are some events sponsored by Democrats nationally and in a few target states. Know of others? Please share them in the comments!

• Harris-Walz Voter Protection Phone Bank: Call likely Democratic voters in battleground states with potential issues with their registration or ballots to ensure their votes are fairly counted! Every day, we strategize directly with state voter protection teams to call the voters that need our help the most. Time is running out for these likely Democratic voters to fix any issues and vote. These can be sensitive calls as we’re dealing with challenges voters may face, but they generally appreciate our outreach because our only agenda is to ensure they're able to cast their ballot and ensure it counts. No experience necessary, though you will need to use your computer, an online script/calling platform, and your phone to make these calls, so comfort with computers is important. We will train you for the first 30 minutes, stay on to support you along the way, and debrief for 10 minutes at the end. You'll need a computer with internet and a phone; tablets/iPads aren’t recommended for compatibility issues. Sign up for as many shifts as you can! Multiple dates and times offered. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/crooked/event/684133/

• Arizona: Ballot Cure Phone bank: Join us in helping Arizonans by calling voters and guiding them on the steps to cure their ballots. Never called voters before? Don't worry! We will give a full training and explain every step of the way. Multiple dates and times offered. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/crooked/event/717867/

• Michigan: Ballot Cure Training with Michigan VoPro: Calling all Voter Protection volunteers (remote and in Michigan)! The Harris for President Voter Protection Team is actively recruiting volunteers for its Ballot Cure team! What is Ballot Cure: Ballot Cure is the process of helping voters who have had their ballot rejected by their local clerk for an issue with the signature or address on their absentee ballot. If these voters do not take steps to fix or "cure" their ballots, their votes will not be counted! What You'll be Doing: Experts from the Voter Protection Team will walk you through all the basics of how Ballot Cure works here in Michigan. Trained volunteers will join our regular phonebanks (flexible for all types of schedules) where we'll be notifying voters their ballots have been rejected, and how they can make their vote count. Multiple dates and times offered. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/2024mivictory/event/724863/

• North Carolina: North Carolina Voter Protection: Chase & Cure Training (Nov. 6, 12pm & 7pm) Please join us for an overview of our Ballot Chase and Cure program. This training will provide volunteers with the information and resources they need to help voters resolve issues currently preventing them from having their ballots counted. This outreach will be essential to ensuring that every eligible voter has their voice heard in the 2024 election. Register: https://www.mobilize.us/crooked/event/709165/

• Ohio: Ohio Ballot Cure Phonebank (T/Th/Sat): Ballot Cure Matters: Ensure Every Vote Counts: You’ll help ensure that every Ohioan's vote is counted. Often, voters miss important messages from their County BOE about their rejected ballot. We will make sure Ohioans know how to fix their ballot and have a plan to get it done before the deadline. Multiple dates and times offered. Register here: https://www.mobilize.us/mobilize/event/714404/

Thanks for reading, friend – I’m glad to see you here! If you love what I do and you want to support it, consider becoming a paid subscriber. It means a lot!