The Root of Trump's Big Polling Problem

The Epstein Files, South Park, and how the cool kids have cooled on Trump

Donald Trump has a problem. A big one.

As you’re likely aware (and are probably celebrating) recent polls show his approval has dropped like a rock.

Image Source: Gallup

On every issue, he’s lost ground since February. While his favorability rating remains at 93% with Republicans (and 4% with Democrats, which is a curiosity), it has tumbled a whopping 13 points with Independents – from 47% in January to 34% in July. (See Gallup: Independents Drive Trump's Approval to 37% Second-Term Low)

Pollsters and pundits are slack-jawed that the so-called Teflon Don may have lost his protective seal, at least with so-called Independents.

I’ve seen various theories as to the cause – the weight of tariffs, the depravity of this administration’s behavior against immigrants, the on-again off-again policies that show a mixture of indecisiveness and incompetence. Their buffoonery. The Epstein Files.

And certainly all of that feeds into his slide.

But I have a much more basic theory. It’s one rooted in a lifetime of watching popularity contests from the sidelines, and in my recent experiences as the mother of a 13-year old middle-school boy.

I don’t think Trump’s problem is based on a particular policy or issue.

His problem is that he is no longer cool.

Ask any 13 year old and you’ll learn about the hierarchy of coolness that’s applied in their school. And while humans grow physically (and hopefully mentally) there’s really not much that’s different for adults – there is still a pecking order for what is cool and what is … not cool.

Unfortunately, caring – at which Democrats excel – is very uncool. I realized this the other day, as I was reading the excellent writing of Zawn Villines, who described the plight of the ever-uncool mom. She’s right that women (and moms in particular) are forever uncool, regardless of the demographic that’s polled, and that this un-coolness is weaponized against us. (Momala, anyone?)

We are the party poopers, the wet blankets, the ones that make sure everyone gets home safely and well fed. Boringly dependable, we’re the reason that “everything always works out in the end.” It’s sadly ironic that mothering, caretaking, is actually what supports the ability of the cool kids to be so dismissive and flippant. But so it goes.

Government – which the cool kids branded “the nanny state” (note the intentionally feminine imagery) – is also very uncool. Straightlaced, bespectacled, showing up at your door and asking how it can help. Can you be any more cringe?

Meanwhile, what’s “cool” is typically tough, independent, aloof, gruff – with a decidedly mean streak. Coolness gives off irreverent, rule-breaking, risk-taking, bad-guy vibes.

But most importantly, they look as if they don’t care one whit about anyone else; their popular power is so great, so overwhelming, that they can say or do anything they want, and nothing will touch them. They simply do not care.

Sound familiar?

Since his ride down a golden escalator, Trump has gone to great pains to cultivate this macho gruff nobody-can-touch-me image.

During the 2024 campaign he scowled as he tromped across stages, his long black coat evoking Darth Vader’s cape. (Fun fact: Darth Vader loosely translates to Dark Father). He was compared to “The Undertaker” of professional wrestling fame – his tough guy image being highly curated, created. Even MAGA’s more recent “Daddy’s home” memes evoke this Big Man image; here there is raw popular power with no higher authority.

He makes sport of blatant discrimination and cruelty – says and does shocking things that, for anyone else, would have dire political consequences. Frankly, he does and says things that, were they to come out of the mouth of a tween, would get them grounded.

But rather than being disgusted, his fans delight in his willingness to “tell it like it is.”

It’s like the bully in the middle school cafeteria who delights in pouring chocolate milk on the nerds, while onlookers laugh – with a sticky combination of excitement and nervousness and wonder.

It’s okay, he can do it. He’s cool.

But as any middle schooler will tell you, popularity is a fickle master and things can turn on a dime. It depends upon who is defining it, who is focusing their attention, and where that attention is focused.

And now, very suddenly, and I think unexpectedly, it looks like the people who had defined Trump as cool … have now cooled on Trump.

While that’s due in part to Epstein Files, it’s not necessarily the content of the files that’s caused the problem. It seems that his problem is caused by the rift he has driven between himself and influencers who have a lot of reach and a lot of clout, and who feel betrayed by him backing down on his promises to release the files. They bit into the Epstein story, promoted it with their audiences, highlighted it during the campaign.

Now they feel wronged. And they’re reacting in real time, with seriously big audiences.

Joe Rogan, the extremely popular macho podcaster whose support for Trump in 2024 helped his campaign tremendously, is probably the best and most important example. He has 14.5 million subscribers on spotify, 19 million subscribers on YouTube, 19.7 million on Instagram, and 15 million on X. His October podcast episode featuring – and endorsing – Trump has wracked up 59 million views on YouTube alone.

Recently he’s chastised the administration on how it’s handled the Epstein Files, complaining that the Justice Department is treating people like babies, trying to “gaslight” the American people, and rightly saying the files are “part of how they [meaning the Trump administration] got elected.” He’s also called out the depravity of ICE raids on migrant workers, calling them “insane” and “horrific,” and said tariffs are stupid.

In other words, he had already soured quite a bit on Donald Trump, and had done so publicly. But in his most recent podcast episode, Rogan went further, much further, with the help of some (animated) middle school boys from Colorado.

This past week, South Park dropped the first episode of its 27th season – an epic takedown that depicts Trump in bed with satan while mocking his reaction to the Epstein List, his penis size, and his penchant for suing everyone.

The episode pointed at Trump – and rather than depicting him as powerful, all-mighty, tough, and worthy of fear … laughed at him. He was the joke.

That wasn’t lost on Rogan; he joined in the fun. Various reports quoted him as going on and on about the South Park episode during his most recent show, saying "It's f****** hilarious," "They haven't given a f*** since the beginning, and it's the greatest show of all time," and that they have reached “highest level of not giving a f***.”

In other words, the cool kids think that South Park is cool.

And Donald Trump is not.

The website Just Watch announced that since the episode dropped viewership for South Park surged 258% (not a typo). South Park’s popularity has shot through the roof – taking it from an average popularity rank of #94 on TelevisionStats straight to #1. It’s currently hovering at #5.

In every metric – viewers, twitter subscribers, reddit followers, wikipedia views, online engagement – South Park is soaring.

When asked at San Diego ComicCon about the episode and the White House’s reaction to it, South Park creator Trey Parker said, sarcastically, “We’re terribly sorry.”

The audience laughed.

The lesson? Making fun of Trump is fun, and profitable, and cool.

Let’s hope they all take that lesson to heart.

Because as right-leaning and red-pilled influencers have soured on Trump over the last few months, Trump’s polling numbers have softened, too. Perhaps that’s a coincidence, but I don’t think so. Like the cool kids in a middle school lunch room who can shift public opinion with a well-timed sneer, as these influencers shift their attention and tastes, their audiences will as well.

So I’ll be watching and sharing and amplifying content that pokes fun of Trump and makes him look weak, and silly, and very uncool. I’ll reward the folks who produce that content by adding to their views and increasing their engagement. That will encourage them to make more – and teach the algorithms to share more of it.

I hope you’ll join me; I think it will be a joyful endeavor. I hope we will have a lot of company.

Let’s do what we can to make Trump’s big polling problem much, much bigger.

It’s going to be so very cool.

Let’s get to work.

Photo by diana kereselidze on Unsplash

Actions for the Week of July 29, 2025

Friend, things may be heavy – but you can lighten that load by doing something small – a “small deed” – to bring about the world that you want to see. In doing so we tell the world, the universe, our leaders – and most importantly, ourselves – that we will not go quietly into that good night.

I call it Action Therapy.

That’s why in each Tuesday post I share a few “small things” – usually a Small Thing to Read, a Small Event to Attend, and a Small Call to Make or Action to Take. My intention here is to give you actions you can tuck into your week with ease – and know that you’re doing something today to make tomorrow better.

Join me in doing so. It matters.

Small Call to Make or Action to Take: Keep the Pressure on to Release the Files

This is an easy call to make of your electeds. We need to keep the Epstein Files top of mind.

Hat tip to the always-wonderful Rogan’s List for putting together a very comprehensive summary and phone script. (Check it out here.) Here’s their recommended script for ease, but please check out their resource – it’s excellent. (And subscribe to Rogan’s List while you’re at it!)

Hi, my name is _________, and I’m a constituent from (city, zip). (If voicemail, leave street address).

I am calling to ask Rep. ______ to sign the discharge petition for the Massie-Khanna bill releasing all Justice Department documents and records on the Epstein case. Accountability and justice for child sex abuse is something we should all be able to agree on – no matter who is implicated.

Small Event to Attend: One Million Rising + North Carolina Voter Protection Effort

Tomorrow, July 30 (Wednesday) Indivisible is hosting their next One Million Rising call: “a national effort to train one million people in the strategic logic and practice of non-cooperation, as well as the basics of community organizing and campaign design. This is how we build people power that can’t be ignored.” It’s a 1.5 hour event, and you can sign up here.

Also tomorrow, join Justice Anita Earls and NC Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton to find out how you can help voters provide ID numbers and update their registrations. Sign up here.

Small Thing to Read: Truth & Share

Indivisible has a new tool out that is really incredible. It’s called Truth and Share, and it’s the 2.0 version of a social media toolkit. You can repost on a number of social media sites straight away, and the amount/diversity of content is top notch. This resource is 10/10 no notes. (If anyone knows how they did this let me know!) Check it out here: https://app.sosha.ai/toolkit/trump-news-headlines-media-9938

Thanks for reading, friend – I’m glad to see you here! You’re making a difference, I promise.

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