Some Much-Needed Perspective and Context for Iowa
Last night, Donald Trump did exactly what literally everyone predicted, and won the Iowa caucuses – securing 51% of the vote. It’s true that he trounced his opponents, who split the anti-Trump vote nearly equally (DeSantis at 21% and Haley at 19%).
But it’s also true that 49% of caucus-goers chose Not-Trump over Trump.
So as I was reading breathless headlines like Trump Dominates in Iowa, and Can Anyone Stop His March to the Nomination?, I was pretty hungry for some context. So I did some digging, and thought I’d share.
Iowa has a little over two million registered voters. 715,000 of those registered voters are unaffiliated with a party, while 631,000 are Democrats, and 719,000 are Republicans (it’s notable that there are just 4,000 more Republicans than there are unaffiliated voters in Iowa, don’t you think?).
Those 719,000 registered Republicans are the only people who were eligible to participate in yesterday’s Republican caucus.
But of that 719,000, only 110,298 participated – which is a 15% turnout. (Compare that to 186,657 in 2016.) That’s not exactly a high-turnout election.
And of course, just 56,260 people – 51% of the 15% that turned out – voted for Trump.
Yes, 51% is a majority. But it’s a majority of a minority.
These breathless headlines parroting Trump’s vast and emperor-like strength are based on just 56,260 people’s opinion.
And those 56,260 people amount to just 7.8% of the Republicans in Iowa – and 2.8% of the registered voters in Iowa!
All of this becomes even more interesting when you factor in the entrance polling showing 2/3 of caucus-goers believe Biden did not win the 2020 election.
Yes, you read that right.
So a big chunk of folks who believe Biden is a completely illegitimate president (because of the GOP’s big election lies) did not cast their vote for Trump yesterday.
Listen, I think this is important because there’s a sweet spot for activism. When Democrats feel like something is inevitable in either direction, motivation wanes. I get that.
So I want you to recognize that yes, Trump is almost certainly going to be the Republican nominee. And yes, he can win the presidency in 2024 (if we let him).
But – no matter what the NYT headlines may be on any given day – he’s not invincible. He doesn’t even have a lock on the very people he convinced he won the 2020 election. That’s pretty telling.
He’s damaged goods, and it shows. I think we can work with that. Don’t you?
On that note, let’s get to work.
Actions for the Week of January 16, 2024
Healthy Mom Act (Hat Tip to Jessica Craven!)
This is an excellent bill, and I’m grateful that Jessica Craven brought it up in her action newsletter.
As you’re a human being, you understand the need for good health insurance. It is an insane aspect of our lives that to change healthcare plans during any time of year other than the “open enrollment” period, we need to have had a “qualifying life event.” Marriage, divorce, the birth of a child – all those things qualify. (A note that today, Jan. 16, is the last day of open enrollment, so share https://www.healthcare.gov/ with your network!)
But while the birth of a child is a qualifying event, pregnancy is not. Yes, you read that right. Pregnancy – one of the most taxing and dangerous times in a woman’s life – on its own is not a qualifying event. (I’m beginning to think that Republicans really do think babies are provided by storks.)
This is bananas. And it should change.
Luckily, there’s a bill right now in both the House and Senate to make that happen. Sponsored by Ohio’s own Sherrod Brown in the Senate and NJ’s Bonnie Watson Coleman in the House, the Healthy MOM Act would add pregnancy to qualifying events. It’s a total no-brainer.
So this is one that we all need to call our congresscritters about – especially if they are Republicans. If they are serious about “protecting the unborn” then they should be 100% on board with improving healthcare coverage for the people carrying those fetuses.
Here’s the Senate bill cosponsor list, and here’s the House bill cosponsor list.
The bills were just introduced in December. My congresswoman is Cori Bush, and I called her office just now to ask why she’s not yet a co-sponsor. Please do the same!
Script: Hi, my name is _____ and I’m a constituent at _____. I’m calling to ask the Senator/Congress(wo)man to support and co-sponsor the Healthy Mom Act, which would simply add pregnancy to the list of qualifying events for insurance purposes. It makes no sense that the birth of a child is a qualifying event, but pregnancy is not – and it makes it harder for some people to get the prenatal care that they need and that will make them and their child healthier. Besides, the birth of a child is a qualifying event anyway – this is simply moving that line from “birth” to “pregnancy.”
And one last reminder that today (Jan 16) is the last day for open enrollment. Go here to enroll now https://www.healthcare.gov/
Long Covid Hearing This Thursday
From a wonderful, subscriber-supported newsletter called The Sick Times, comes this excellent action: This Thursday, January 18, there is a Senate HELP committee hearing on Long Covid at 10 am EST: “Addressing Long COVID: Advancing Research and Improving Patient Care.” Members of the public — especially people with Long Covid — are encouraged to attend and share their experiences. There will be a livestream of the hearing at the link provided above. Long Covid Moonshot has organized a telethon today, in which community members can alert senators to the importance of this issue. Follow the Sick Times on social media for live coverage of the hearing!
With Democrats Things Get Better – This Friday!
Veteran Democratic political strategist and Hopium substack writer Simon Rosenberg is hosting his signature presentation With Democrats Things Get Better this coming Friday. If you’ve not attended in the past (or even if you have but want a refresher) you should tune in for this 30-minute data-filled event: Jan 19, 2024 12:00 PM in Central Time
From the event description: “What we learn is that Democrats have repeatedly made things better when in power; the GOP, not so much. This presentation is for all the info warriors out there who want to help Joe Biden and the Democrats get louder and win the election this year. Loud and proud people!” Register here: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_E-lPIwFUQ9Ss7dJC5cgLSA?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#/registration
More Postcards!
You asked, and I’m hearing you! Multiple folks have reached out saying that they want more postcard opportunities, so I want to share this one that landed in my inbox. Postcards to Voters is trying hard to finish the list for Tom Suozzi, who is running to replace Santos in Congress. It’s easy to request addresses:
Email “HELLO” to Request@abbyaddresses.org (You can type Hello into the subject line or the body of your email, whichever you prefer.)
Wait for a response. Abby the email bot will send you an email back, and then you respond with: Send me 10 [or however many addresses you want] addresses for the Tom Suozzi in NY campaign.
Job done!
WHEW! GO TEAM!
P.S.: Why don’t you make someone’s day and send this pep talk to a friend or two? I bet they need it.
If you’d like to sign up to get this pep talk and action list in your in-box each week, you can do that here. Welcome, friend!
P.P.S.: If you want to help support this work you can do so via Patreon at
https://www.patreon.com/smalldeedsdone or via paypal at https://www.paypal.me/smalldeeds
My deepest gratitude in advance.
Thank you for reading. Thank you for writing. I read and respond to every email! We’re in this together. Don’t you forget it.